The Rams closed last season by clearing 48.5 points in six straight regular-season games, and not one of them was close: 57, 51, 75, 75, 62 and 59. Tonight they open against San Francisco at the Melbourne Cricket Ground with the number sitting right back at 48.5.
Tonight's game
| Kickoff | 8:35 PM ET, Thursday |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground, Australia |
| TV | Netflix |
| Quarterbacks | Brock Purdy (SF), Matthew Stafford (LA) |
| Spread | Rams -4, up from -2.5 at open |
| Total | 48.5 |
That spread move matters more than its size. Los Angeles opened -2.5 and now lays 4, which drags the number through 3, the most common margin in football.
The board
| Bet | Record at this number | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Rams Game Total Over 48.5 | Cleared in 6 straight regular-season games | -105 |
| Colby Parkinson Over 18.5 Receiving Yards | 9 of his last 10 | -108 |
| Christian McCaffrey Under 59.5 Rushing Yards | 7 of his last 8 as an underdog | -110 |
| Puka Nacua Anytime Touchdown | Scored in 6 of his last 8 | +130 |
| Matthew Stafford Under 0.5 Interceptions Thrown | 12 of his last 16 | -144 |
The Rams Have Not Played a Quiet Game Since November
Six games, six times Over 48.5, and those six averaged nearly 63 points. Two of them landed at 75. That is not a team squeezing past a number, it's a team that has been blowing through it since the end of November, and the total came down a point anyway. It's -105.
Worth a look: Over 48.5.
Stafford's Tight End Keeps Getting There
Colby Parkinson has cleared 18.5 receiving yards in 9 of his last 10 games, and Stafford threw him the ball in all 10 of them. There's no quarterback change hiding inside that record, which is the first thing worth checking on a tight end. Tonight's number is 18.5.
The lean is Over 18.5 at -108.
McCaffrey Has Been Contained When San Francisco Is Getting Points
Christian McCaffrey has stayed Under 59.5 Rushing Yards in 7 of his last 8 games as an underdog, and in 7 of his last 10 on the road. San Francisco is getting 4 tonight, so the spot fits the scope exactly.
Worth a look: Under 59.5 Rushing Yards at -110.
Nacua at Plus Money to Find the End Zone
Puka Nacua has scored in 6 of his last 8 games, and in 6 of his last 8 with Stafford under center. He's +130 to do it again, the only genuine plus price among the featured bets tonight.
Could be a value play: Anytime Touchdown at +130.
Stafford Has Stopped Giving It Away
Matthew Stafford has thrown no interceptions in 12 of his last 16 games. Narrow it to the games he played at home and it's 6 of his last 7.
Stands out: Under 0.5 Interceptions Thrown at -144.
First half and quarters
This is where the game gets interesting, because both teams have a second-quarter habit and only one of them can keep it tonight.
San Francisco has covered the 2nd Quarter Spread in 6 straight divisional games, and tonight it's getting 1.5 in that quarter at -118. The Rams have covered their own 2nd Quarter Spread in 4 straight divisional games, laying 1.5 at -104. Those two runs are pointed at each other, and one of them ends tonight.
The cleaner side of the same shape is the 49ers' first half. San Francisco has stayed Under 10.5 first-half points in 6 straight games as an underdog, going 6, 10, 3, 7, 7 and 10, a stretch that runs through two playoff games. That's the read: a slow San Francisco start, then a 49ers second quarter.
The lean is 49ers Under 10.5 1st Half Team Total at -139.
Quick hits
- Kyren Williams has topped 10.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 7, and San Francisco allowed the 9th-most receiving yards to running backs in the league last season, 31.3 a game. He's -109.
- Davante Adams has finished with 4 or fewer receptions in 6 of his last 8, and in 7 of his last 8 with Stafford throwing. -117.
- The Rams have cleared 26.5 team points in each of their last 4 divisional games, putting up 27, 37, 37 and 45. -115.
Six straight Overs, and a total that came down anyway. Somebody is wrong about how many points this game is worth.
Numbers move right up to the 8:35 PM ET kickoff, so check the current price with our line shopping guide before you act on any of it. If a market here is unfamiliar, our betting terminology guide covers the quarter and half bets in plain language. And please gamble responsibly.