Ten games on the Monday board, and eight of them are trending toward silence. Team Totals Under, game Unders, first-inning zeros: that's most of what tonight's card is selling. The noise is bunched into two windows, both of them in the East, both of them at 7 PM ET, and the loudest number on the whole board belongs to a team that keeps taking leads into the 6th.
| The bet | The record | The number |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta First 5 Innings Run Line -0.5 | Led through 5 in 17 of 20 | +120 |
| New York Mets First 5 Innings Total Over 4.5 | 5+ runs early in 8 of 9 | -108 |
| Boston Moneyline | Won 15 of 16 | -146 |
| Tampa Bay Full Game Total Under 10 | Under in 13 of 17 | -108 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers Team Total Under 4.5 | Held to 4 or fewer in 14 of 18 | -115 |
| Philadelphia Full Game Total Over 9 | Over in 5 straight | -107 |
| Arizona Full Game Total Under 8.5 | Under in 11 of 16 | +105 |
Atlanta keeps taking the lead into the 6th
Six in a row, and 17 of the last 20. That's how often the Braves have been in front at the end of the 5th, and tonight they're getting plus money for it at +120. Bryce Elder is expected on the mound with the Mets in town, and his recent work fits the shape of the trend: 6 innings and 2 runs against San Diego, then 8 strikeouts and a single earned run against Baltimore on July 25. Atlanta has also handled this opponent lately, winning 3 of the last 4 meetings. First pitch is 7:15 PM ET in Atlanta. The First 5 Innings Run Line asks one thing of the Braves, and it's the thing they've done all month.
Worth a look: Atlanta First 5 Innings Run Line -0.5 at +120.
The other side of that same first five
Here's the fun part. The Mets have their own early-innings run going, and it isn't in conflict with Atlanta's. New York's games have produced 5 or more combined runs through 5 innings in 8 of the last 9, six of those in a row, averaging 6.8 runs over the first 5 frames in that stretch. Christian Scott gets the ball for the Mets. Both of these can land: Atlanta ahead, and the scoreboard busy.
The lean is: Mets First 5 Innings Total Over 4.5 at -108.
Boston has lost once in its last 16
Fifteen wins in their last 16, five in a row, and the Red Sox are laying -146 in Toronto tonight with Sonny Gray expected to start. Boston's roster looks different than it did a month ago after adding Adley Rutschman at the deadline, and the results haven't dipped through the change. Toronto counters with Jameson Taillon at 7:07 PM ET, the earliest first pitch on the card. A -146 price on a team playing this well isn't a bargain and isn't meant to be. It's just the number that comes with a run like this.
This one stands out: Boston Moneyline at -146.
Ten runs is a tall order in Oakland
The number on Rays games tonight is 10, and that's a long way from where these games have been finishing. The Under has cashed in 13 of Tampa Bay's last 17, four in a row, and those 17 games averaged 6.7 total runs. Freddy Peralta is expected to start for Tampa Bay against Jacob Lopez, and the Rays have carried this same Under shape on the road, where 19 of their last 29 have stayed below the number. First pitch is 9:40 PM ET.
Worth a look: Tampa Bay Full Game Total Under 10 at -108.
The Dodgers keep getting held down
Los Angeles has been kept to 4 runs or fewer in 14 of its last 18, including the last 3 in a row, and the matchup points the same direction. Against left-handed starters, that Under has landed in 11 of the Dodgers' last 14, and Kansas City is expected to hand the ball to lefty Noah Cameron. This is the last game to start all night at 10:10 PM ET, which makes it the one most likely to still be live when everything else is settled. For the player-market version of this game, there's more in today's props board.
Worth a look: Dodgers Team Total Under 4.5 at -115.
And then there's St. Louis
Five straight Overs, averaging 11.6 runs a night. That's the Phillies right now, and tonight's number is 9 with Andrew Painter expected to face Hunter Dobbins at 7:45 PM ET. It's only a 5-game run, short enough that one quiet night ends it. But on a board this determined to stay quiet, a run like that is the exception worth naming.
Could be a value play: Philadelphia Full Game Total Over 9 at -107.
Back to the quiet, and it pays plus money
Arizona closes the loop. The Under has hit in 11 of the Diamondbacks' last 16, four in a row, and it's priced at +105 tonight with Michael Soroka expected to start against Colorado's Gabriel Hughes. These two have kept it low together as well, with the Under landing in 5 of their last 7 meetings. It's a 9:40 PM ET start in Arizona, and it belongs to the same eight games that make up most of this board.
The lean is: Arizona Full Game Total Under 8.5 at +105.
Quick hits
- Toronto's bats have been shut down at home, held to 3 runs or fewer in 13 of the last 15 (-118).
- At -135 you're paying up, but St. Louis has scored 4 or fewer in 20 of its last 28.
- San Francisco hasn't trailed after 5 innings in 4 straight, and 7 of its last 9. The First 5 Innings Run Line +0.5 is -123.
- Minnesota games have stayed Under in 18 of the last 26, and 14 of 19 at home (-105).
- One Over hiding in the pile: Colorado has put up 4 or more in 14 of its last 22 (-104).
Two games doing the shouting, eight doing the opposite. If you like your baseball loud, the East games start first and you'll know early. Everyone else can settle in for the 9:40 window and watch the zeros pile up.
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