Tuesday, August 11 gives us all 15 games, and the board has a funny way of pricing itself tonight. The longest, deepest runs on the card come back at even money or better, while the one number everybody already knows about costs the most to touch. That is the whole slate in a sentence: the quiet stuff is cheap, the obvious stuff isn't.
Featured game
| Matchup | Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels |
| First pitch | 9:38 PM ET |
| Venue | Angel Stadium, Anaheim |
| Expected starters | Cody Bradford (LHP) vs Ryan Johnson (RHP) |
| Moneyline | Texas -143, Los Angeles +118 |
Tonight's trend board
| Bet | Record | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Angels Under 9 Game Total | 20 of 25 | +100 |
| Rays Under 5.5 F5 Total | 14 of 18 | -104 |
| Yankees Under 4.5 Team Total | 18 of 21 | -140 |
| Nationals +0.5 F5 Run Line | 19 of 27 | +100 |
| Brewers Under 7.5 Game Total | 10 of 11 | -105 |
| Blue Jays Under 3.5 Team Total | 14 of 16 | -103 |
| Braves Over 4.5 Team Total | 5 of 5 | +116 |
Angels games keep dying on the vine
Twenty of the last 25 Angels games have finished Under the total, and tonight's number sits at 9 with an even-money price attached. Replay that current 9 against those same 25 games and it still lands 20 times, which is the version of the stat that actually matters. The run isn't spotless either: Anaheim and Texas combined for 15 on Sunday, so this is a pattern with a dent in it, not a straight line.
Here's the honest wrinkle, and it's a real one. Ryan Johnson is expected to take the ball for the Angels carrying a 6.10 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP through 7 starts this season, which is not the resume you'd sketch for an Under. The run has survived him anyway, largely because Angel Stadium keeps swallowing contact and both these lineups have gone quiet at the same time.
Worth a look: Under 9 at +100.
The Rays don't let you eat early
Tampa Bay has held the first five innings Under 5.5 in 14 of its last 18, and the last 5 in a row. Those games have been genuinely airless: 4 runs through 5 on Monday, then 3 and 2 in the two before that. Nick Martinez is expected to start against Mason Barnett in Oakland, and the F5 market is where this Rays team has been most predictable all month.
Worth a look: Under 5.5 First 5 Innings Total at -104.
The Yankees have stopped scoring, and it costs you
New York has been held to 4 runs or fewer in 18 of its last 21 games, which is not a sentence anybody expected to write about this lineup in August. Seattle counters with Bryan Woo tonight at 7:05 PM ET, and the Yankees have stayed Under this number in 21 of their last 30 against right-handed starters specifically.
Now the part nobody enjoys: this is -140. That's a chunk to lay on a team total, and the length of the streak doesn't change the arithmetic of the price. It's the most expensive number on tonight's board, which is exactly what happens when a run gets long enough for everyone to notice it.
Worth a look: Under 4.5 Team Total at -140.
Washington keeps it close for five
The Nationals haven't been buried early in a while. They've stayed within half a run through five innings in 19 of their last 27 and 5 straight, and the +0.5 F5 run line is sitting at +100. Shota Imanaga is expected to start for the Cubs, and Washington has cleared this same number in 7 of its last 10 against left-handers.
Worth a look: Nationals +0.5 First 5 Innings Run Line at +100.
Milwaukee, where runs go to disappear
Ten of 11. That's the Brewers Under record, and three of those have come back to back. The last three Milwaukee games produced 5, 7 and 7 runs against numbers in the 7.5 to 8.5 range, so the margin has been thin rather than comfortable, but it keeps landing on the right side. Kyle Harrison is expected to face Walker Buehler in San Diego.
Worth a look: Under 7.5 at -105.
Toronto's bats have gone missing
Fourteen of the last 16 Blue Jays games have finished with Toronto scoring 3 or fewer, including 2 on Monday. Boston sends out Patrick Sandoval and the number is 3.5 at a shade of juice. It's the quietest offense on a board full of them.
Worth a look: Under 3.5 Team Total at -103.
The one game where somebody actually hits
Every board needs a counterpunch, and Atlanta is it. The Braves have gone Over 4.5 runs in all 5 of their recent meetings with the Mets, and that number replays clean across every one of them. They put 5 on the board Monday night. Nolan McLean is expected to start for New York at 7:15 PM ET.
Say the obvious part out loud: 5 games is a short window, and a short window is one flat night from being nothing. But it's the only offense on the card with any recent proof against this specific opponent, and it comes back at +116 rather than a price built on a long public streak. If you want a look at the individual bats behind it, they're on today's props board.
Worth a look: Over 4.5 Team Total at +116.
Quick hits
- The Cubs have covered -1.5 in 20 of 27, and you can have it flat at +100.
- San Diego's moneyline has landed in 17 of 24, tonight at +126.
- Philadelphia is the loud outlier: 6 straight Overs, with 11, 13 and 12 runs in the last three.
- Arizona has led through five in 15 of 21, priced at -115 against Colorado.
- Seattle's own team total has stayed Under 3.5 in 15 of 21, also flat at +100.
Fifteen games, and the theme barely wavers: the scoreboard operators are getting the night off almost everywhere except Atlanta and Philadelphia. If yesterday's board split into loud games and quiet ones, tonight the quiet ones simply took over.
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