Thursday, August 27 hands you a board that reads like a thermostat. One half is bats that have gone completely cold, starting with the loudest name in Atlanta's lineup, and the other half is hitters who cannot stop finding the barrel. Baltimore at St. Louis is off this page entirely, because the Cardinals still had no announced starter this morning and a pitching matchup you cannot name is not a matchup you can write about.
| Trend | Record | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 1.5 Total Bases | 1 base or none in 9 straight | -183 |
| Blue Jays NRFI | Scoreless 1st in 21 of last 29 | - |
| Andrew Vaughn Over 0.5 Hits | Hit safely in 9 straight | -212 |
| Yankees NRFI | Scoreless 1st in 15 of last 19 | - |
| Carson Benge Over 0.5 Total Bases | 1 base or more in 20 of last 24 | -140 |
| Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Runs | Scored in 8 of last 10 | +110 |
| Michael Harris II Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI | 2 or more in 7 of last 8 | +102 |
Acuna's bat has been missing for 9 straight games
Ronald Acuna Jr. has been held to 1 total base or none in every one of his last 9 games. He had 0 on Wednesday, 1 on Tuesday, and he has not put up more than 1 in any game since August 17. Eight of those 9 games carried the same 1.5 number he is looking at tonight, so this is not a trend built at some other line.
The backdrop is not subtle. His 105 wRC+ would be a career low over a full season, and August has been rougher than the season figure: 20 games with a 4.7 percent walk rate, a 27.9 percent strikeout rate and a 77 wRC+. Atlanta has moved him to designated hitter to keep his legs out of right field after he already missed 52 games this year.
The honest counterweight is that he is still Ronald Acuna Jr., and one swing off Yoshinobu Yamamoto erases the whole conversation. First pitch is 7:15 PM ET.
Worth a look: Acuna Under 1.5 Total Bases at -183.
Toronto's first inning keeps ending 0-0
Blue Jays games have opened with a scoreless first in 21 of their last 29, a run that stretches back to July 25 and covers most of a month of opponents. Noah Cameron goes for Kansas City, Spencer Arrighetti for Toronto, 7:07 PM ET.
Low-scoring innings are the through line of this whole matchup, and you will see it twice more in the quick hits below. If the market is new to you, our betting terminology guide walks through what a no run first inning bet actually settles on.
The lean is the NRFI in Toronto.
Andrew Vaughn will not stop hitting
Vaughn has hit safely in 9 straight games for Milwaukee. That run is an extension of a stretch that already produced a career high 12-game hitting streak from July 25 through August 6, during which he batted .435 with 5 home runs and 16 RBI.
Sean Manaea and his left arm are the obstacle at Citi Field tonight. The number is -212 for a single hit, which is exactly the kind of price our EV calculator exists to translate.
Worth a look: Vaughn Over 0.5 Hits at -212.
The Yankees start quiet, then they do not
New York's games have gone scoreless through the first inning in 15 of the last 19. Gerrit Cole faces Hayden Wesneski at 7:05 PM ET, which is two right-handers and a first inning that has been very hard to score in.
Then the game gets loud. The Yankees put 9 on Houston on Wednesday and have scored 7 or more in 3 straight. Slow starts and big finishes are not contradictory, they are just two different bets.
The lean is the NRFI at Yankee Stadium.
Carson Benge earned his Rookie of the Year noise
Benge has picked up at least 1 total base in 20 of his last 24 games, including each of the last 6. The season line behind it: .278/.337/.428 with 16 home runs, 68 runs, 53 RBI and 19 stolen bases, plus a Major League rookie lead of 9 outfield assists.
Jacob Misiorowski and his fastball are the test, and a 0.5 total bases number is about as low a bar as this market offers a regular.
Worth a look: Benge Over 0.5 Total Bases at -140.
Rafael Devers keeps touching home
Devers has scored a run in 8 of his last 10 games for San Francisco, and tonight it pays plus money at +110. He leads the Giants with 27 home runs, and a hitter who reaches base that often in a lineup that bats him near the top gives himself chances.
Arizona sends Jose Cabrera at 9:45 PM ET, the last first pitch on the board.
Worth a look: Devers Over 0.5 Runs at +110.
Michael Harris II is the other half of that Atlanta lineup
While Acuna has gone silent, Harris has cleared 2 hits plus runs plus RBI in 7 of his last 8 games. He hit a career high 21st home run on August 23 at the Little League Classic, and the same lineup that cannot get Acuna going has had no trouble getting Harris to the ball.
The wrinkle you should know: he was blanked on Wednesday, so the run stopped at exactly the wrong moment for anyone who wanted a clean streak to point at.
Worth a look: Harris Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI at +102.
Quick hits
- Toronto games have produced 4 runs or fewer through five innings in 20 of the last 25, and 6 in a row. The First 5 Innings Under 4.5 sits at -106.
- Ernie Clement has not crossed the plate in 6 straight games and has stayed off the board in 21 of his last 27. Under 0.5 Runs at -220.
- Spencer Jones has a hit in 9 of his last 11 and is batting .320 over his last 7 games, which is a strange sentence to write about a rookie carrying a 36 percent strikeout rate. Over 0.5 Hits at -137.
- CJ Abrams has failed to score in 6 of his last 7, and Washington's Under 0.5 Runs on him pays +110.
Two dugouts, one thermostat, and a Cardinals starter nobody could name by breakfast. Baseball in late August does not owe anyone tidiness.
Numbers move all day, so always shop the current price before you commit. Our line shopping guide covers why the number matters as much as the side. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.