The last Saturday of August brings 15 games, a doubleheader in the Bronx that traces back to a June rainout, and a surprising amount of empty space in the RBI column. Four of the day's cleanest angles are middle-of-the-order bats that keep reaching base without bringing anybody home. September starts Tuesday, and a few of these lineups are limping to the turn. Here's the board for Saturday, August 29.
Two games are left off entirely: Houston at the Mets and Pittsburgh at St. Louis both point to bullpen games, with the reported starters carrying relief workloads. When the pitching matchup is that unsettled, everything built on top of it is guesswork.
| Trend | Recent form | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado Under 0.5 RBI | No RBI in 4 straight, 13 of his last 15 | -220 |
| Matt Olson Under 0.5 RBI | 13 of his last 15 | -150 |
| Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 RBI | 9 straight | -175 |
| Tristan Peters Over 0.5 Runs | Scored in 6 straight | +169 |
| Yankees Game 1 Under 8 | 15 of their last 21 | -113 |
| Marlins NRFI | 20-7 over their last 27 | - |
| Heriberto Hernández Over 0.5 Hits | 6 straight, 14 of his last 17 | -182 |
Machado Keeps Hitting. Nobody Keeps Scoring.
Here's the part that makes this one interesting: Manny Machado isn't slumping. He ripped 3 hits on August 11, 3 more on August 18, and a pair on August 14. What he hasn't done is drive anybody in. San Diego's third baseman has stayed Under 0.5 RBI in 13 of his last 15 games, including his last 4 in a row, and the ledger says 2 RBI total across that whole stretch. He faces Nick Martinez and the Rays at 4:10 PM ET.
Worth a look: Machado Under 0.5 RBI at -220.
Olson's Bat Is Loud, His RBI Column Isn't
Atlanta's first baseman has been the same story with a different accent. Matt Olson has 2 RBI games in his last 15, and one of them did most of the damage: a 3-RBI night against Arizona on August 16. He's stayed Under 0.5 RBI in each of his last 2 as the Braves host Colorado at 4:10 PM ET with Ryan Feltner on the mound. No active run to lean on, just a rate that has held for 3 weeks.
The lean is Olson Under 0.5 RBI at -150.
Murakami's Timing Still Hasn't Come Back
The rookie who led the American League with 20 home runs through his first 57 games is not the same hitter since a strained hamstring cost him 7 weeks. Munetaka Murakami has gone 9 straight games without an RBI, which is every game in his current log, and he batted .184 with no homers over his first 11 games back from the injured list. The White Sox visit Minnesota at 2:10 PM ET with Bailey Ober expected to start. Small sample, but it's a clean one, and the reason behind it is on the record.
Worth a look: Murakami Under 0.5 RBI at -175.
The One White Sox Bat Crossing the Plate
Same lineup, opposite direction. Tristan Peters has scored in 6 straight games and in 11 of his last 15, and he's the only Chicago hitter on this board pointed Over anything. He's in the middle of a breakout year at .289/.351/.453, and unlike everything else here, the price pays: +169 to cross the plate once. Everyday role is the risk. Recent form is the reason.
Stands out: Peters Over 0.5 Runs at +169.
A June Rainout, an August Under
The Red Sox and Yankees settle an old debt at 1:05 PM ET, a makeup of the June 6 postponement, with Carlos Rodón expected to face Jake Bennett. New York's games have gone Under 8 in 15 of their last 21, and the last 2 landed there. The supporting angle points the same way and is correlated by design rather than independent: the Yankees are 17-4 NRFI over their last 21, so the same quiet early innings are doing work in both columns. Two lefties in a day game is the setup this run has been feeding on.
Worth a look: Game 1 Under 8 at -113.
Miami's First Innings Keep Coming Up Empty
Nothing dramatic, just a number that won't move. The Marlins are 20-7 NRFI over their last 27, with Sandy Alcantara starting at Washington at 4:05 PM ET. No live streak attached, so the rate is the whole case.
Hernández Is the Marlin Who Keeps Reaching
The wrinkle in Miami's quiet first innings is that one of their bats hasn't been quiet at all. Heriberto Hernández has a hit in 6 straight and in 14 of his last 17, and he's stuffed the box score for 2 or more total bases in 4 of those. Getting on base and scoring in the 1st are different jobs, which is how both Miami angles can be true at once. He'll see Cade Cavalli in the same 4:05 PM ET game.
Could be a value play: Hernández Over 0.5 Hits at -182.
Quick hits
- Junior Caminero has a hit in 11 straight, which is as close to a metronome as this board gets. Over 0.5 Hits at -225.
- Ryan Jeffers hasn't driven in a run in 7 straight, and he's stayed Under in 19 of his last 22. Under 0.5 RBI at -190.
- You have to lay -235 on Bryson Stott to stay Under 0.5 RBI, and the 7-game run plus 14 of his last 17 is what you're paying for.
- Dillon Dingler hasn't crossed the plate in 12 straight games. Under 0.5 Runs at -235 in the Detroit day game.
- Honest wrinkle on Freddy Fermin: 4 straight and 16 of his last 20 Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI at -161, though his window has to reach back to late July to get there.
Yesterday's board leaned the same direction, and Friday's trends are worth a look alongside this one.
August has one weekend left to settle up, and judging by the RBI column, several of these guys plan to file for an extension. The Bronx nightcap goes at 7:15 PM ET, so the Yankees get two cracks at proving that number wrong.
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