Wednesday, August 5 hands you 15 games, and the board has an opinion about when they get decided. Most of the strongest game-market trends today live in the first five innings or the opening frame, before either bullpen gets involved. The loudest angle on the card belongs to a Detroit team that hasn't played a quiet game in two weeks, and four of these games start before 3:15 PM ET, so the early half of this board moves fast.
| Bet | Record | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Tigers-Mariners Over 7.5 | Over in 7 straight | -104 |
| Braves F5 Run Line -0.5 | Led after 5 in 15 of 18 | +120 |
| Yankees Team Total Under 4.5 | 4 or fewer in 16 of 18 at home | -110 |
| Orioles NRFI | Scoreless 1st in 16 of 23 | - |
| Rangers Over 8.5 | Over in 20 of 25 | +105 |
| Red Sox F5 Total Over 4.5 | 5+ through 5 in 5 straight | +105 |
Seven games, seven Overs for Detroit
That's the run the Tigers carry into a 9:40 PM ET start at T-Mobile Park, where today's Total is set at 7.5. Detroit has been travelling well in every sense: a five-game road winning streak, and over its last 10 games the club has outscored opponents by 42 runs while hitting .313 as a team, per Fox Sports. On the road specifically, the Over has cashed in 6 of the Tigers' last 7.
Drew Anderson is expected to get the ball for Detroit, with Bryan Woo expected on the mound for Seattle. Anderson has worked mostly out of the bullpen this year, so how deep he goes is the open question sitting under this number.
Worth a look: Over 7.5 at -104.
Atlanta keeps settling things by the 6th
+120 on a team that has led after five innings in 15 of its last 18 games. The Braves' F5 Run Line -0.5 has landed 4 in a row, which is the kind of early-innings angle that doesn't need a late rally to pay.
Bryce Elder is expected to start for Atlanta against Eury Pérez, first pitch 7:15 PM ET at Truist Park. Miami has been on the other end of this all month, and the Marlins' Game Total has stayed Under in 15 of their last 20, so nobody in this matchup is arguing for a shootout.
The lean is: Atlanta F5 Run Line -0.5 at +120.
The Bronx has gone quiet
New York's bats have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 16 of their last 18 games at home, averaging exactly 3.00 runs across that stretch. The Cardinals bring a matching shape into town: St. Louis games have finished Under the Total in 16 of their last 22, and in 7 of their last 8 on the road.
Two aligned numbers pointing the same way is about as much as a totals angle can ask for. Will Warren is expected to start for the Yankees, Andre Pallante for St. Louis, at 7:05 PM ET. The Yankees' F5 Total has also stayed Under in 15 of its last 21, so the quiet has been starting early.
Worth a look: Yankees Team Total Under 4.5 at -110.
First-inning zeros at Camden Yards
The opening frame has come up empty in 16 of Baltimore's last 23 games, and in 12 of its last 13 at home. That's 3 in a row now. Trevor Rogers, expected on the mound for the Orioles, is 7-3 NRFI in his last 10 starts.
Reid Detmers is expected to start for the Angels in a 6:35 PM ET game, and this is a left-on-left matchup, which is part of why the early innings here have been so slow to produce anything.
Worth a look: the NRFI in Baltimore.
Texas plays loud afternoon baseball
20 of the Rangers' last 25 games have finished Over the Total, and at Globe Life Field it's 19 of their last 23. Today's number sits at 8.5 and pays +105, which is the rare case where the price and the record are pulling in the same direction.
Carson Whisenhunt is expected to start for San Francisco with Cody Bradford expected for Texas, first pitch 2:35 PM ET. There's no active streak to lean on here, so it's the rate doing the talking, not a hot week.
Stands out: Over 8.5 at +105.
Fenway's first five
Boston has put 5 or more combined runs on the board through 5 innings in 5 straight games, and in 12 of its last 17. Sonny Gray is expected to start against Sean Burke at 7:10 PM ET, with the F5 Total set at 4.5 for +105.
Could be a value play: F5 Total Over 4.5 at +105.
Quick hits
- The Mets have kept the scoreboard tidy: the Under has cashed in 15 of their last 19, and tonight's number in Cleveland is 8.0 (-115).
- +135 on San Diego's Run Line -1.5, a bet that has landed in 9 of the last 10 as the Padres have won by 2 or more.
- Kansas City's early innings have been sleepy all summer, with the F5 Under hitting in 16 of the last 20 (+108).
- Wrigley's matinee has the opposite problem. Chicago has put up 5 or more in 20 of its last 30 (-118).
- Milwaukee's 1st inning has come up empty in 15 of its last 19, and in 7 of the last 8 against Pittsburgh, with Paul Skenes expected to start for the Pirates.
Player markets are a different animal today, and a lot of big names have gone missing at the plate. That's all in today's props board.
Four of these games are finished before most of the country sits down to dinner. If the board's pattern holds, a fair few of them will have been settled before the fifth-inning stretch.
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