September opens on Tuesday with 15 games on the board and every one of them starting after 6:30 PM ET, which means the whole slate lands in a single night window. The pennant races have four weeks left. The trends underneath them are all about scoreboards that refuse to move.
| Trend | Record | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Dodgers Game Total Under 9 | Under in 7 of their last 8 | -115 |
| Marlins NRFI | 15-4 in their last 19 | - |
| Nationals NRFI | 15-6 in their last 21 | - |
| Braves Game Total Under 10 | Under in 14 of their last 19 | -113 |
| Rays NRFI | 13-5 in their last 18 | - |
| Marlins Game Total Under 9.5 | Under in 20 of their last 29 | +105 |
Nobody Is Scoring in Los Angeles
The Dodgers close the night at 10:10 PM ET against St. Louis, and their games have turned into some of the quietest on the schedule. Fewer than 9 total runs have been scored in 7 of their last 8, including each of the last 4 in a row. Three of those games finished with 3 total runs or fewer.
It is not a fluke of one bad week either. Los Angeles went 13-14 in August and finished the month with 104 runs scored and 106 allowed, an offense that national coverage spent the last two weeks picking apart. Michael McGreevy and Eric Lauer are both expected to start.
Here is the honest wrinkle, and it matters. Tonight's Total is set at 9, which is a higher number than any of the 8 games in that stretch carried. The stretch is real; the bar tonight sits above where it has been sitting.
Worth a look: Under 9 at -115.
Miami Keeps the 1st Inning Empty
The Marlins visit Kansas City at 7:40 PM ET carrying the cleanest first-inning trend on the board. Their games have finished NRFI 15-4 across the last 19, and the last 4 in a row have gone that way. On the road it is even sharper at 20-3 in their last 23.
Tyler Phillips and Randy Dobnak are the expected starters. The trend here is not built on either arm. It is built on two lineups that keep taking the first inning off, and Miami has been the most reliable half of that equation for a month.
Worth a look: the NRFI.
Washington Opens Quiet Too
Same story, different building. Nationals games have gone 15-6 to the NRFI across their last 21 and 4 in a row, and at home the number is 15-5 in their last 20. Against Atlanta specifically they are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings.
Jake Irvin gets the ball against AJ Smith-Shawver at 6:45 PM ET in the first game of the night. This one is the earliest look on the slate at a pattern that shows up three separate times.
Worth a look: the NRFI.
The Braves Half of the Same Game
What makes Atlanta at Washington the most interesting game on the board is that both markets point the same direction. Braves games have stayed Under 10 in 14 of their last 19, with 3 more landing exactly on 10. On the road it leans harder still: Under in 15 of their last 19.
There is no active streak here, and that is worth saying plainly. Atlanta went Over the number on Monday. What the sample says is that these games have finished in single digits far more often than they have gotten loud, and 10 is a tall bar to clear.
Worth a look: Under 10 at -113.
Tampa Bay Starts Slow at Home
The Rays host the Mets at 6:40 PM ET with games that have gone 13-5 NRFI over their last 18, and 2 straight. Their home number is the one that stands out: 20-7 in their last 27 in front of their own crowd.
Freddy Peralta is expected to start for Tampa Bay against Sean Manaea. This is the third first-inning angle of the night, which is either a board telling you something or a board repeating itself. Take your pick.
Worth a look: the NRFI.
The Only Plus Price on the Board
Short one. Miami's full-game Total is set at 9.5 tonight, and their games have stayed Under that number 20 times in their last 29, including 3 straight. At +105 it is the only angle here that pays better than even money.
Worth a look: Under 9.5 at +105.
Six angles, five of them pointing at silence, and the one plus price attached to the same team that owns the first-inning trend. If tonight's board is right, September opens with a lot of people watching very little happen. The player side of the slate is over on today's props board, and yesterday's board has the streaks that carried into the new month.
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