Friday's 15-game board has one loud personality, and it belongs to the guys who keep reaching base and keep failing to finish anything. September 4 hands us a Pirates cornerstone who hasn't driven in a run since mid-August, a first-time All-Star who can't find a second base, and three first innings that have made a habit of ending 0-0.
Two games sat this one out. Detroit and Cleveland are playing a doubleheader, and the pitching plans in the Giants and Cardinals games couldn't be pinned down cleanly before publish, so nothing from either appears below.
Here's the board, then the games behind it.
| Bet | Recent form | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 RBI (LAA at PIT, 6:40 PM ET) | No RBI in 13 straight, 23 of his last 25 | -204 |
| Ernie Clement Under 1.5 Total Bases (TOR at KC, 8:10 PM ET) | 16 of his last 18, 9 in a row | -152 |
| Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 RBI (MIL at CIN, 6:10 PM ET) | 19 of his last 23, 5 in a row | -220 |
| Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 RBI (MIN at CWS, 7:40 PM ET) | 18 of his last 24, 5 in a row | -186 |
| Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 Runs (ARI at HOU, 8:10 PM ET) | 16 of his last 18 | -200 |
| Washington NRFI (WSH at LAD, 10:10 PM ET) | 15 of their last 20, 6 in a row | - |
| Atlanta NRFI (ATL at PHI, 6:40 PM ET) | 19 of their last 29 | - |
Reynolds Hasn't Driven In a Run Since August 18
Bryan Reynolds' last RBI landed on August 18. That's 13 games ago, and it isn't a playing-time story, because he's been in the lineup for every one of them. Stretch the window and he's stayed Under 0.5 RBI in 23 of his last 25.
The honest wrinkle cuts the other way: Reynolds carries a .920 OPS at PNC Park against .672 on the road, and tonight is a home game. The counterweight is the size of the collapse. He drove in 59 runs before the All-Star break and 7 after it, and the drought has run straight through home dates.
Pittsburgh gets right-hander Ryan Johnson at 6:40 PM ET.
Worth a look: Reynolds Under 0.5 RBI at -204.
The All-Star Who Can't Find a Second Base
Ernie Clement made his first All-Star team this summer, started at second base for the American League, and has since gone 9 straight games without reaching 2 total bases. Widen it out and the Under 1.5 has landed in 16 of his last 18.
The shape of the stretch is the tell. His log is full of 1s and 0s rather than blanks, so he's playing and making contact; what he isn't doing is turning any of it into extra bases. Toronto is in Kansas City at 8:10 PM ET, with left-hander Daniel Lynch IV expected to start.
The lean is Clement Under 1.5 Total Bases at -152.
Washington's First Innings Keep Ending 0-0
Washington games have finished NRFI in 15 of their last 20, and 6 in a row. Tonight the pattern gets its best possible ally: Blake Snell has allowed 3 runs total across 4 starts since returning from elbow surgery on August 11.
Washington counters with Jackson Kent, making his 5th major league start. First pitch is 10:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium. If the shorthand is new to you, our betting terminology guide handles NRFI in a sentence.
Could be a value play: Washington NRFI.
A Birthday in Cincinnati, and Nothing to Show For It
Garrett Mitchell turns 28 today and arrives in Ohio having stayed Under 0.5 RBI in 19 of his last 23, including 5 in a row. He isn't a passenger here either. Mitchell has 55 RBI and a 112 OPS+ in the most complete year of his career, which makes this a genuine cold snap rather than a role change.
Milwaukee opens in Cincinnati at 6:10 PM ET, where Mitchell is expected to see right-hander Rhett Lowder.
Worth a look: Mitchell Under 0.5 RBI at -220.
Chicago's All-Star Third Baseman Stopped Finishing Innings
Miguel Vargas earned his first All-Star nod this season and has stayed Under 0.5 RBI in 18 of his last 24, 5 of those in a row. He's an everyday infielder on a team that doesn't have many, so this is a bat that will keep getting chances to break it.
Minnesota visits at 7:40 PM ET with right-hander Zebby Matthews expected for the Twins.
Worth a look: Vargas Under 0.5 RBI at -186.
The Lowest Total on the Board Starts With Chris Sale
Atlanta games have finished NRFI in 19 of their last 29, and tonight the market agrees with the direction. The Braves and Phillies carry a 6.5-run total, the lowest number on a 15-game board, with Chris Sale opposite Cristopher Sanchez at 6:40 PM ET in Philadelphia. Two arms of that quality in the same game is how a first-inning trend gets its easiest night of the week.
Could be a value play: Atlanta NRFI.
Yainer Diaz Keeps Getting On and Never Coming Around
Yainer Diaz has stayed Under 0.5 Runs in 16 of his last 18. For a catcher hitting in the middle of a Houston order, that is a lot of innings ending with him stranded. Arizona visits at 8:10 PM ET, and Diaz draws right-hander Merrill Kelly.
Worth a look: Diaz Under 0.5 Runs at -200.
Quick hits
- Toronto's own first innings have ended 0-0 in 18 of their last 29, which turns the Kansas City game into a two-angle stop.
- Price note in the Pittsburgh game: Nick Gonzales hasn't scored in 18 of his last 23, and his Under 0.5 Runs sits at -143.
- Alejandro Kirk has stayed Under 1.5 Total Bases in 10 of his last 11 at -147, the tidiest short-window number on this list.
- Honest wrinkle to close: Teoscar Hernandez is Under 0.5 Runs in 18 of his last 22 and 3 in a row at -140, but 4 of the misses came inside the last 3 weeks, so that streak has more company than the headline number suggests.
Seven angles, and every one of them is a bet on nothing happening. That's what a September board looks like when the bats agree to a truce. Our EV calculator shows what a number like -220 is actually asking of you.
Somewhere in here a bat wakes up around 7 PM and ruins the whole theme. It usually does.
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