Labor Day hands us a matinee board: 8 of Monday's 11 games start before 6 PM ET, and the first pitch of the day lands at 1:05. September 7 also hands us a theme. Contact is cheap on this card. Runs are not.
Two games are missing below. Arizona's plan in Kansas City points to a bullpen game rather than a starter, and Los Angeles had not settled on an arm against Cincinnati before publish, so nothing from either appears here.
Here's the board, then the games behind it.
| Bet | Recent form | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (LAA at BOS, 1:35 PM ET) | 6 straight, 8 of his last 9 | -145 |
| Andrew Vaughn Over 0.5 Hits (CHC at MIL, 2:10 PM ET) | 4 in a row, 14 of his last 15 | -188 |
| Marcus Semien Under 0.5 Runs (NYM at MIA, 1:10 PM ET) | 22 of his last 25 | -235 |
| Miami NRFI (NYM at MIA, 1:10 PM ET) | 3 in a row, 19 of the last 25 | - |
| Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 Hits (MIN at DET, 3:10 PM ET) | 2 in a row, 15 of his last 18 | -185 |
| Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (ATL at PHI, 1:05 PM ET) | 3 straight, 13 of his last 18 | -133 |
| William Contreras Over 0.5 RBI (CHC at MIL, 2:10 PM ET) | 2 in a row, 7 of his last 9 | +195 |
Six Straight Games Where Duran Did Nothing
Jarren Duran has stayed Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI in 6 straight, and in 8 of his last 9 at that number. His combined line in those six games reads 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1. That's a leadoff-caliber bat producing almost nothing.
The season explains it. Duran is hitting .209 with a .636 OPS, he's been dropped to the bottom third of the order, and Boston has leaned toward a platoon against left-handers. Los Angeles starts right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, so he's expected to be in there.
Worth a look: Duran Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI at -145.
Vaughn Is the Counterpunch
Somebody on this board is swinging it, and it's Andrew Vaughn. He's gone Over 0.5 Hits in 4 in a row and 14 of his last 15, and he's hit .400 with a double and a home run across the past week while batting third.
The matchup fits the record. Vaughn has cashed this same Over in 7 of his 9 games against left-handed starters, and Chicago sends left-hander Matthew Boyd to Milwaukee at 2:10 PM ET.
The lean is Vaughn Over 0.5 Hits at -188.
Semien Came to New York and Stopped Scoring
Marcus Semien has stayed Under 0.5 Runs in 22 of his last 25. He arrived from Texas in the Brandon Nimmo trade, and the move has not gone the way anyone drew it up: the Mets sit at 65-78 and out of the race, and Semien's year has been a grind.
The split sharpens it. Against right-handed starters he's stayed Under this number in 11 of 13, and Miami hands the ball to right-hander Eury Perez. The price is steep at -235, which is what a 25-game sample like this costs.
Worth a look: Semien Under 0.5 Runs at -235.
Miami's First Innings Keep Ending 0-0
Marlins games have finished NRFI in 19 of the last 25, including 3 in a row. Miami is still chasing a wild card and is leaning on Perez to hold the line, while the Mets counter with 23-year-old Jonah Tong, who has 5 career starts to his name.
Two young right-handers, one team playing for something and one playing out the string, first pitch 1:10 PM ET under the loanDepot park roof. New to the shorthand? Our betting terminology guide covers NRFI in a sentence.
Could be a value play: Miami NRFI.
Torres Keeps Finding a Hit, and Joe Ryan Is Back
Gleyber Torres has recorded a hit in 15 of his last 18 games at this number, 2 of them back to back, and he's done it in 10 of 14 against right-handed starters. Detroit hosts Minnesota at 3:10 PM ET.
Here's the tension: the Twins activated Joe Ryan off the injured list Monday morning after a month out, and he's the arm Torres draws. A rested starter on day one back is the one thing here that could argue with the number.
Worth a look: Torres Over 0.5 Hits at -185.
Marsh Has Gone Whisper-Quiet
Brandon Marsh has stayed Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI in 3 straight and 13 of his last 18. Atlanta opens the day in Philadelphia at 1:05 PM ET with right-hander Grant Holmes.
The lean is Marsh Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI at -133.
The Best Price on the Board Belongs to a Catcher
William Contreras is the exception to everything above, and he's priced like it. Milwaukee's catcher has driven in a run in 7 of his last 9 and in back-to-back games, and that Over 0.5 RBI pays +195, the longest number on this list.
He's also the hottest bat in the building: 4 straight games with a hit, 7-for-14 in that stretch, three doubles in his last two. Add the platoon angle, because Contreras has cashed this in 8 of 9 against left-handers and Boyd is one. Our EV calculator puts a plus-money price like that in context.
Worth a look: Contreras Over 0.5 RBI at +195.
Quick hits
- Royce Lewis hasn't scored in 4 in a row, and he's stayed Under 0.5 Runs in 16 of his last 19 at -197. Same game as Torres, opposite direction.
- Nobody on this board has been stranded more reliably than Dillon Dingler, who is Under 0.5 Runs in 17 of his last 18 at -164.
- Price note in San Diego: Daylen Lile's Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI has landed in 10 of his last 14 and pays +110, first pitch 5:10 PM ET.
- Honest wrinkle to finish: Jake Cronenworth is Under 0.5 Runs in 10 of his last 11 at -145, but he crossed the plate Sunday, so the run through that number ended one game ago.
Eleven angles, and nine of them are a bet on somebody failing to do something. That's a Labor Day board for you: everybody shows up, nobody scores.
Contreras is the holdout. If the whole card goes quiet at once, he's the bat that ruins it.
Prices move between books, so check the current number before you commit. Our line shopping guide explains why that gap matters. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.