Fifteen games on Tuesday, August 11, and the player board reads like a list of habits. Some of these guys can't buy a run right now, a couple of them can't stop reaching base, and almost none of it looks like it's about to change tonight. Here are the ones with enough recent proof to be worth talking about.
Tonight's prop board
| Player | Bet | Record | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh | Under 0.5 Runs | 24 of 28 | -180 |
| Steven Kwan | Over 0.5 Hits | 20 of 23 | -220 |
| Jackson Merrill | Over 0.5 Runs | 7 of 7 | +185 |
| Oswald Peraza | Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI | 18 of 20 | -165 |
| Nasim Nunez | Under 0.5 Total Bases | 15 of 16 | +110 |
| Bailey Ober | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | 9 of 10 | -127 |
| Zack Gelof | Over 0.5 Hits | 26 of 29 | -185 |
Cal Raleigh hasn't crossed the plate in a while
Seattle's catcher has failed to score in 24 of his last 28 games, and the last 5 in a row. That is a strange thing to write about a hitter of his stature, but the underlying story backs it up: on August 7 the Mariners reshuffled their order and Raleigh started a game batting eighth or lower for the first time since 2022, per Seattle beat coverage. Hitting there means fewer trips to the plate and fewer bats behind him capable of driving him in.
He draws Ryan Weathers and a trip to the Bronx tonight, first pitch 7:05 PM ET. The number is 0.5 Runs at -180, which is a lot to lay, and the streak has been long enough that the price reflects it.
Worth a look: Under 0.5 Runs at -180.
Steven Kwan simply does not go hitless
While most of this board is about droughts, Kwan is the opposite problem for pitchers. He's collected at least one hit in 20 of his last 23 games and 9 straight, and against right-handed starters he's at 16 of 18. Detroit is expected to hand the ball to Drew Anderson, a righty, at 6:40 PM ET.
The catch is the same catch as always with a contact hitter this consistent: you're paying -220 for the privilege. The market has known who Kwan is for two years now.
Worth a look: Over 0.5 Hits at -220.
Merrill keeps finding his way home
Seven games, 7 runs scored, and the price is still +185. Jackson Merrill has touched the plate in every one of his last 7, and San Diego's number tonight hasn't caught up to it. Kyle Harrison is expected to start for Milwaukee at 9:40 PM ET.
Worth a look: Over 0.5 Runs at +185.
The quietest bat in Anaheim
Oswald Peraza has stayed Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI in 18 of his last 20 and 10 straight, and the current number replays across 18 of those 20. Against left-handed starters he's 7 of 8, and Cody Bradford is a lefty expected to start for Texas at 9:38 PM ET. The Angels have been a quiet offense in general lately, which you can see from the game-market side on tonight's team trends board.
Worth a look: Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI at -165.
Twelve straight nights without a base
Nasim Nunez owns the longest active streak on the entire card: 12 consecutive games without recording a total base, and 15 of his last 16. He's 6 of 8 against left-handed starters, and Shota Imanaga is expected to start for the Cubs at 6:45 PM ET in Washington.
What makes this one unusual is the price. Streaks this long normally get taxed into oblivion, and this one comes back at +110 instead, mostly because Nunez isn't a name that moves a market. It's the plainest angle on the board and one of the few plus-money ones.
Worth a look: Under 0.5 Total Bases at +110.
Ober's strikeouts have gone missing
Bailey Ober has finished Under 4.5 strikeouts in 9 of his last 10 starts, with 6 in a row, and the current number replays in 9 of those 10. He faces Baltimore at 7:40 PM ET.
The tension worth naming: the Orioles have been a scuffling offense lately, and a scuffling offense is exactly the kind that runs into strikeouts. So the matchup argues faintly against the trend even while the trend itself has been about as steady as pitcher props get.
Worth a look: Under 4.5 Strikeouts at -127.
Gelof has the biggest sample on the board
Twenty-six hits in 29 games is the deepest track record on tonight's card, and Zack Gelof has held it against right-handers specifically at 15 of 17. Nick Martinez is expected to start for Tampa Bay at 9:40 PM ET in Oakland.
Worth a look: Over 0.5 Hits at -185.
Quick hits
- Teoscar Hernandez hasn't driven a run in for 6 straight, and 19 of his last 22, though -220 is the toll.
- Gunnar Henderson's slide continues: no more than 1 total base in 8 straight, at -114.
- Randal Grichuk is perfect the other way, a hit in all 8 of his last 8, at -164.
- Tomoyuki Sugano has stayed Under 3.5 earned runs in 15 of 20 starts, priced -150 in Arizona.
- The deepest Under on the card belongs to Carlos Cortes: no RBI in 25 of his last 30, at -235.
The shape of tonight is one of those boards where the streaks nobody has heard of pay better than the ones everybody has. Nunez at +110 and Merrill at +185 are doing the same job as Raleigh at -180 and Kwan at -220, just with different names attached.
Numbers move between now and first pitch, so confirm what you're actually getting. Our line shopping guide explains why that gap adds up. If any of these market names are new to you, our betting terminology guide breaks them down. Please gamble responsibly.