Denver's last 6 divisional games last season finished at 22, 33, 41, 41, 17 and 43 total points. Not one of them got past 43, and 43 is exactly where tonight's total sits for the Broncos' opener at Arrowhead, the building where they beat Kansas City 20-13 on Christmas night to finish off a season sweep.
Tonight's game
| Kickoff | 8:15 PM ET, Monday |
| Venue | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City |
| TV | ESPN and ABC |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix (DEN), Patrick Mahomes (KC) |
| Spread | Chiefs -2.5 |
| Total | 43 |
| Weather | Clear, 87°F at kickoff, south wind around 13 mph |
Mahomes is expected to make his return tonight, 9 months after the torn ACL that ended his 2025 season. He carried no game status on the final report.
The board
| Bet | Record | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Game Total Under 43 | Under in 5 of Denver's last 6 divisional games | -105 |
| Broncos +2.5 | 4-1 ATS across their last 5 as an underdog | -115 |
| RJ Harvey Over 2.5 Receptions | 3+ catches in 7 straight road games | +100 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. Over 1.5 Receptions | 2+ catches in 5 straight, 6 of his last 7 | +130 |
| Travis Kelce Over 41.5 Receiving Yards | 8 of his last 11 with Mahomes starting | -113 |
Division Games With Denver Have Stayed Low
The Under cashed in 5 of the Broncos' last 6 divisional games last season, and the one miss landed at 41 against a 40.5 number. Kansas City's own divisional games went Under in 5 of 6 over the same stretch, so both halves of this matchup point the same way. Tonight's number is 43, the highest score any of Denver's 6 reached.
The lean is Under 43 at -105.
The Broncos Keep Winning as the Dog
Denver went 4-1 ATS across its last 5 games as an underdog last season, and it won those 4 outright rather than backing in. The lone loss in that run came by 3 in the playoffs. Tonight it's getting 2.5 on the road at -115.
Worth a look: Broncos +2.5.
Harvey Catches the Ball Every Time He Leaves Denver
RJ Harvey caught at least 3 passes in all 7 of his road games last season, going 3, 3, 4, 5, 3, 6 and 5. He also found the end zone in each of his last 4 road games, and he's +300 to score tonight. The receptions line is 2.5 at even money.
Stands out: Over 2.5 Receptions at +100.
Mims at Plus Money
Marvin Mims Jr. has 2 or more catches in 5 straight games, and in 6 of his last 7, a run that carries through both of Denver's playoff games. The books have him at +130 to do it again tonight.
Could be a value play: Over 1.5 Receptions at +130.
Kelce Has Mahomes Back
Travis Kelce cleared 41.5 receiving yards in 8 of his last 11 games with Mahomes starting last season, and tonight is the first time the two share a field since December. Mahomes was a full participant all week. Kelce's number is 41.5 at -113.
Worth a look: Over 41.5 Receiving Yards.
First half and quarters
The second quarter is where this rivalry goes quiet. Denver's last 5 divisional games produced 2nd Quarter totals of 3, 10, 7, 3 and 7, all Under 12.5, and tonight's 2nd Quarter total is 12.5 at +106, the only plus price on the quarters board.
The fourth quarter belongs to the Broncos. Denver covered the 4th Quarter Spread in 5 straight games as an underdog last season, playoffs included, and tonight it's +0.5 in that quarter at -150.
The first quarter fits the same shape: Denver's last 6 games as an underdog produced 1st Quarter totals of 7, 3, 9, 3, 6 and 3, and tonight's 1st Quarter total is 7.5 at -113.
The lean is 2nd Quarter Under 12.5 at +106.
Quick hits
- Bo Nix threw 35 or more passes in each of his last 4 road games last season (38, 38, 45, 37), and his Pass Attempts line tonight is 34.5 at -102.
- Both quarterbacks have been giving it away: Nix threw a pick in each of his last 4 primetime games, and Mahomes did the same in his last 4 at home. Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown is -108 on Nix and +107 on Mahomes.
- The honest wrinkle on J.K. Dobbins: he topped 50.5 rushing yards in 9 of his last 10 games before the injury that ended his season in November, and tonight's line is 50.5 at -110 in a backfield he now shares with Harvey.
Six divisional games, none past 43, and a total pinned right on that number. Somebody at Arrowhead is going to be off by a field goal.
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