The NFL is back Wednesday night, September 9, and it opens with a rematch. New England visits Seattle at 8:20 PM ET, seven months after the Seahawks beat the Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX. Every number below is from last season, because that's all anyone has in Week 1, and last season Seattle had one habit worth circling: it won the second half.
New England has its own case, and it's a primetime one. That's the tension in this game, and it gets its own section rather than a footnote.
| Game snapshot | |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Wednesday, September 9, 8:20 PM ET |
| Venue | Lumen Field, Seattle (open air; forecast mostly cloudy, upper 50s, calm) |
| TV | NBC |
| Quarterbacks | Sam Darnold (SEA), Drake Maye (NE), both expected to start |
| Spread | Seahawks -3.5 |
| Total | 44.5 |
| Bet | Last season | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Seahawks -3.5 | 13-4 ATS as a favorite, 5 straight | +100 |
| Seahawks 2nd Half Spread -1.5 | 9-0 ATS in their last 9 | -115 |
| Seahawks 1st Half Team Total Under 12.5 | stayed Under in the final 8 regular-season games | -108 |
| Seahawks 1st Quarter Spread -0.5 | led after the 1st quarter in 6 straight | +115 |
| Patriots +3 | 5-0 ATS in primetime | -102 |
Seattle Covered as a Favorite, Then Kept Covering
Seattle was favored 17 times last season, regular season and playoffs combined, and covered 13 of them. It finished on 5 straight covers, and the last of the 5 was the Super Bowl. Narrow it to the spot it's in Wednesday, favored by 2 to 3.5 points, and the record is 4-0 ATS.
The defense is the reason that held up. Seattle allowed 292 points last season, fewest in the league, and it brings back Sam Darnold behind it. Wednesday's number is -3.5, priced at even money.
Worth a look: Seahawks -3.5 at +100.
The Second Half Is Where Seattle Wins the Bet
Seattle covered the 2nd Half Spread in 9 straight games to close last season, a run that began November 30 and carried through all 3 playoff games, the Super Bowl included. It won the second half outright in 8 of those 9 and tied the other.
That's the shape of a team that adjusts at the break and then leans on a defense that doesn't wear down. Wednesday's 2nd Half Spread is Seahawks -1.5.
The lean is Seahawks 2nd Half Spread -1.5 at -115.
Quiet First Halves, Loud Finishes
Seattle's 1st Half Team Total stayed Under in each of its final 8 regular-season games, from mid-November through the Week 18 finale. It scored 13 or fewer before halftime in 6 of those 8 and never topped 16. Put that next to the second-half record above and you have the whole personality: not much early, plenty late.
Wednesday's 1st Half Team Total sits at 12.5.
Worth a look: Seahawks 1st Half Team Total Under 12.5 at -108.
Seattle Doesn't Score Much Early. It Just Scores First.
In its last 6 games last season, Seattle led after the first quarter every time, by 3, 7, 17, 7, 3 and 4 points. The 1st Quarter Spread is -0.5 at +115, which makes the bet as simple as it gets: the Seahawks are ahead after 15 minutes. Our EV calculator shows what a plus price on a 6-for-6 run actually pays.
Could be a value play: Seahawks 1st Quarter Spread -0.5 at +115.
The Counterpunch: New England Under the Lights
Here's the other side of the ledger, and it's real. New England played 5 primetime games last season, won all 5 outright and covered all 5, and it covered the 1st Half Spread in all 5 as well. The Super Bowl kicked off at 6:30 PM ET, so it doesn't count as primetime here, and Seattle covered that one.
This is a different Patriots offense than the one that lost in February. Drake Maye threw for 4,934 yards and 31 touchdowns in the regular season and finished second in MVP voting, and New England added A.J. Brown to the receiving corps this offseason. Rookie back TreVeyon Henderson has been ruled out with an ankle injury, so Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to handle the carries.
Note the numbers aren't mirror images: Seattle is -3.5 on one side of this piece and New England is +3 on the other, a half point of daylight between them.
Worth a look: Patriots +3 at -102.
Quick hits
- Seattle went Over its Team Total in all 3 playoff games, scoring 29, 31 and 41. Wednesday's Team Total is 24.5 at +102.
- The plus-money angle on the other sideline: New England won outright in 3 of its 4 games as a short underdog last season, and it's +150 Wednesday.
- New England covered the 2nd Quarter Spread in 6 straight road games last season. It's +0.5 at -110 this time.
- Seattle covered the 4th Quarter Spread in each of its last 6 regular-season games, and Wednesday it's -0.5 at even money.
Last season Seattle's games had a shape: score first, stay quiet, pull away after the half. Wednesday tells us whether the champions still have it, or whether New England's primetime record was the trend that mattered all along.
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