Josh Allen found the end zone in 7 of his 8 home games last season, and Thursday night is the first regular-season game in Buffalo's new building. The rest of this board belongs to the pass-catchers: Amon-Ra St. Brown's catch count, Khalil Shakir at plus money, and a Bills tight end coming off the loudest game of his career.
Thursday's game
| Kickoff | 8:15 PM ET, Thursday |
| Venue | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park |
| TV | Prime Video |
| Quarterbacks | Jared Goff (DET), Josh Allen (BUF) |
| Spread | Bills -5.5 |
| Total | 54.5 |
| Weather | Upper 60s and muggy at kickoff, a small chance of light rain, light west wind |
The board
| Bet | Record | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen Anytime TD | Scored in 7 of his 8 home games last season | -135 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 7.5 Receptions | 8+ catches in 3 straight, cleared his number in 12 of his last 17 | -101 |
| Khalil Shakir Over 4.5 Receptions | Cleared his number in 12 of his last 16 | +114 |
| Sam LaPorta Over 46.5 Receiving Yards | Cleared his number in 6 of his last 7 | -113 |
| Jared Goff Over 23.5 Completions | 24+ completions in 8 of his last 11 | +101 |
| Dalton Kincaid Over 51.5 Receiving Yards | 130 yards in the opener, cleared his number in 5 of his last 6 at home | -113 |
| Bills 2nd Half -2.5 | 16-4 ATS on the 2nd Half Spread across their last 20 | -109 |
Allen Scores When Buffalo Is the Host
Seven of 8. That's how often Josh Allen found the end zone at home last season, with multiple scores in 4 of those games and the lone blank coming in early October. Detroit allowed the 5th-most touchdowns to quarterbacks per game last season, and Allen threw for 334 yards and 2 scores in the opener. He banged his right hand in that game and stayed in, and he carries no designation on the final report. The price to score Thursday is -135.
Worth a look: Josh Allen Anytime TD at -135.
St. Brown's Catch Count Keeps Climbing
Amon-Ra St. Brown has caught 8 or more passes in 3 straight games, going 10, 11 and 8, and he's cleared his receptions number in 12 of his last 17 dating back to last season. The opener was 10 catches, 67 yards and 2 touchdowns against New Orleans. With Detroit getting points, the split holds up too: he's cleared it in 4 of his last 5 games as an underdog. Thursday's number is 7.5 at -101.
The lean is Over 7.5 Receptions.
Shakir at Plus Money
Khalil Shakir has cleared his receptions number in 12 of his last 16 games, dating back to last season, and the books have him at +114 to catch 5 or more Thursday. Week 1 was 4 catches on 6 targets for 50 yards, which cleared the 3.5 he was set at that day. The number is a full catch higher Thursday.
Stands out: Over 4.5 Receptions at +114.
LaPorta Picked Up Where He Left Off
Sam LaPorta went for 48 yards on 5 catches in his first game back since November, clearing his number. He's now topped his receiving yards line in 6 of his last 7, and he's gone past 46.5 outright in 3 straight, with games of 48, 53 and 97. On the road, the Over has cashed in 4 of his last 5. Thursday's number is 46.5 at -113.
Worth a look: Over 46.5 Receiving Yards.
Goff and the 24th Completion
Jared Goff completed 26 passes in the opener and 27 in his last game of 2025, and he's hit 24 or more in 8 of his last 11 games dating back to last season. Thursday's line is 23.5, priced at +101, on a night Detroit is a 5.5-point road underdog.
Could be a value play: Over 23.5 Completions at +101.
Kincaid's Career Night Set a High Bar
Dalton Kincaid caught 5 passes for a career-high 130 yards in Week 1, the most receiving yards by any tight end that week, with catches of 38, 40 and 35 on 3 separate scoring drives. One game isn't a trend, but the home record behind it is: he's cleared his receiving yards number in 5 of his last 6 at home, and Detroit allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to tight ends per game last season. The line is 51.5 at -113, and he's +190 to score, something he did in 5 of his 6 home games last season.
Worth a look: Over 51.5 Receiving Yards.
First half and quarters
The second half is Buffalo's. The Bills are 16-4 ATS on the 2nd Half Spread across their last 20 games, playoffs included, and they covered it again in the opener. Thursday's 2nd Half line is Bills -2.5 at -109.
The fourth quarter tends to run hot when the total sits this high. In Buffalo's last 5 games with a comparable number, the 4th Quarter went Over in 4, with quarters of 28, 21, 34 and 27 points, and Detroit's last 5 comparable games also went Over in 4. Thursday's 4th Quarter total is 15.5 at -115.
The lean is Bills 2nd Half -2.5 at -109.
Quick hits
- Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 156 yards and 2 scores on 29 carries in the opener, a top-3 rushing week in the league, and his line Thursday is 90.5 at -113. Detroit will be without starting linemen Blake Miller and Christian Mahogany, both ruled out, so the question is whether the lanes are still there.
- Jameson Williams topped 59.5 receiving yards in each of Detroit's last 4 games as an underdog last season (66, 88, 134 and 74), and 59.5 is exactly where his number sits, at -112.
- DJ Moore scored in 5 of his last 7 games, including his Bills debut (5 catches, 100 yards and a touchdown), and Detroit allowed the 2nd-most touchdowns to wide receivers per game last season. He's +155 to score.
A new stadium, two quarterbacks who spread it around, and a total of 54.5. Somebody's catch count is going to matter more than the final score.
The rest of the week's slate lives on our NFL trends hub. Numbers move right up to the 8:15 PM ET kickoff, so check the current price with our line shopping guide before you act on any of it. If a quarter or half market here is unfamiliar, our betting terminology guide covers it in plain language. And please gamble responsibly.